I’ve been learning how to do something that is very difficult. Its performance based, not physical, but very mental. And it’s a probability thing. Learning and then finding the greater probability of one thing happening over another.

So, I got to thinking… surfing is a probability thing too. It’s said and I think true that every wave is different. Even surf spots that produce really well-formed waves that may look perfect, every one of those waves are different one from the next.

I surf the waves at Ventura Point. Sometimes the surf can be really good there. Other times no good at all. On any given day what are the probabilities there will be good surf. Well, it depends on any weather system that’s out in the middle of the ocean. Will it get strong enough with winds blowing in the direction needed to send waves to the beach in Ventura? Then, if waves are generated what are the chances that local weather and wind conditions will be favorable when the waves generated hundreds of miles offshore reach the beach?  

With seasons changing storms generated in the Pacific Northwest are waning and storms in the South Pacific are starting to be produced.  The Southern Pacific waves take days to reach California. Because of the forecasters everyone knows when a south swell might reach Ventura. So, when one of those south swells are forecast what are the probabilities the local wind conditions in the Santa Barbara Channel will whip up and cross up the well-formed south swells that have traveled over 4 thousand miles to reach us and of course make for what could be good surf not good at all?

I’m a real nut case when it comes to south swells and local channel winds. Knowing a south swell is on the way from south of the equator with an anticipated arrival day I’ll be watching the Santa Barbara buoy readings for the wind conditions. Be totally disappointed when winds pick up in the channel a day or 2 before swell arrival days and stoked when the winds are calming down or light before swell arrival days.

So here we are, south swells are starting to show in the forecasts and I’m on the lookout for what the local winds are going to be like. Yes, I like south swells.

Back to the probabilities thing. What are the probabilities of good surf coming our way with good local conditions compared to poor local conditions? If you’re close to the surf ok, but what if you’ve got to drive even a short distance? I’ve got a receipt from a gas station from 3 weeks ago…. Price per gallon? $6.10.  If you’ve got a 20- or 30-mile round trip drive to surf and the probabilities are low that the surf will be any good, is it worth the trip to find out?

I wonder if Surfline subscriptions have increased for the very reason of gas prices and people not wanting to take a chance that the surf won’t be good enough to warrant the expense in gas? Even though having access to Surfline wave cams costs dollars, you might save money over the year by not going for a surf because you can see from the camera that the surf is junk.

I’m pretty sure the probabilities of decent surf tomorrow are low. But next week? We just don’t know for sure. We could take bets on it though.

D.R.